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Interest rate guides

Plain-English explainers for every chart on the site - each one goes from a two-sentence answer down to expert-level detail, with sources. Pick a question:

How to Read the Yield Curve

A picture of how much interest the U.S. government pays to borrow money for different lengths of time.

What Is an Inverted Yield Curve?

A red flag from the bond market - short-term interest rates ending up higher than long-term ones.

What Is the Federal Funds Rate?

The Federal Reserve's main interest-rate lever - what banks charge each other for overnight loans.

What Is SOFR?

What big financial institutions pay to borrow cash overnight against U.S. Treasury collateral.

What Happened to LIBOR?

An old, discontinued benchmark interest rate - replaced after banks were caught rigging it.

Global Overnight Reference Rates, Explained

Each major currency has its own overnight benchmark interest rate - the post-LIBOR replacements.

How Are Mortgage Rates Determined?

The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate comes from two big sources: Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS index and Optimal Blue's daily lock data.

How Your Credit Score Affects Your Mortgage Rate

Your credit score is one of the biggest things that decides what mortgage rate a lender offers you.

How Savings & CD Rates Work

Two different things both get called the 'savings rate' - and they answer different questions.

The US Debt Ceiling, Explained

How much the U.S. government owes, and the legal cap Congress sets on that borrowing.

The Fed Dot Plot, Explained

A chart the Fed publishes 4 times a year showing where each Fed official thinks interest rates should go.

CPI vs Core CPI: What's the Difference?

CPI is the most common U.S. inflation measure. 'Core' CPI drops food and energy so price spikes don't muddy the signal.

PCE vs Core PCE: The Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. When you hear 'the Fed's 2% target,' this is what they mean.

What Is Breakeven Inflation?

The inflation rate the bond market is betting on, derived from the gap between regular Treasury and TIPS yields.

Every Major U.S. Inflation Measure, Explained

There isn't one 'inflation number.' Different measures look at prices differently and often disagree short-term.

Which Economic Releases Move Interest Rates?

The dates that move interest rates - Fed meetings, jobs reports, inflation reports, and Treasury auctions.

How Treasury Auctions Work

How the U.S. government actually borrows money - it auctions new bonds to buyers and lets them set the rate.

NAIC GOES Interest-Rate Scenarios, Explained

Official "what if" futures for interest rates - the paths insurance regulators make insurers test against.